A lot of it may just be that I've never voted before, but I'm voting for Kerry this time because Bush terrifies me. If there's me, how many more habitual non-voters will show up for Kerry?
Other, easier predictions: even if one side gets a solid win, there will be law suits. Nader will get almost no votes.
I will note that after I read Asymetrical Information, a conservative-libertarian blog (including some comments), I begin to wonder if I'm spending too much time in the echo chamber, but then, so are they. AI and Making Light both tend to attract people who are intelligent and not obviously crazy, but they might as well be writing from two different universes.
Just for the fun of it, here are the stats from the Reason Magazine poll of various libertarians and (other) weirdos--I think it's pretty much people who have written for, edited, or been interviewed by the magazine.
Kerry 12 1/2
Bush 11 1/2
Badnarik (libertarian) 7 1/2
Won't vote 6
Can't vote 1 (not US citizen)
Won't say 3
Undefined (Florida resident) 1
Not Bush or Kerry 1
Still thinking 2 (article compiled in August)
Browne (libertarian) 14
Doesn't vote 7
That Florida voter again 1
Won't say 2
Margin of error--I only went through the article once when I tabulated, so there might be an off or lost vote here and there. This adds authenticity to the process.
Conclusions: It's a close race. Nader isn't getting a lot of votes. It looks as though the weird people votes are going to the the major parties with more of them going to Kerry. Any theories about how many weirdos are out there?
And if you're not totally sick of politics already, I recommend the article--some of the people interviewed are pretty funny.