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Especially about the future - Input Junkie
January 11th, 2011
07:00 am


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Especially about the future
Economists who had a better record at calling extreme events had a worse record in general. “The analyst with the largest number as well as the highest proportion of accurate and extreme forecasts,” they wrote, “had, by far, the worst forecasting record.”

Link thanks to Marginal Revolution.

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(4 comments | Leave a comment)

[User Picture]
Date:January 11th, 2011 12:51 pm (UTC)
Doesn't surprise me. The people I knew who were talking about the forthcoming crash (mostly friends who worked at other financial institutions) were expecting it to fall over a long time before it did, and we would have been wrong for a couple of years of negative predictions as things continued to climb.
[User Picture]
Date:January 11th, 2011 03:22 pm (UTC)
This is why I don't bother with the survivalists' claim that the whole system is going to crash and we'll revert to a post-apocalyptic cowboy economy. I've found that The Future changes along conservative lines, even at the worst of times.
[User Picture]
Date:January 11th, 2011 04:59 pm (UTC)
As Frederick Pohl just said, about publishing Dhalgren: "I think that if you try a lot of weird ideas, and if you're lucky, now and then one of them will work -- magnificently, sometimes. But it's very rare that they will work a second time."
[User Picture]
Date:January 11th, 2011 06:03 pm (UTC)
Yeah, I saw that, and thought it was a really great coincidence with what I'd posted.
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