There are too many interesting factors to be worth setting them up as a poll, so.....
On the US military abroad? On a US embassy? On what is usually considered the US?
At this point, drones seem to be mostly used for killing individuals. How long till they can deliver a more destructive payload?
Meanwhile, targeted assassination or random terrorism?
Subverted US drone, some other's government's design and production, or homebuilt? For completeness' sake, repurposed drone built by another government?
Turns out to be directed by an American? Allied to a non-US organization or home-grown terrorism?
Any other questions?
If you want to make a public checkable prediction, Prediction Book is a convenient resource. The founder of Prediction Book writes about what they've gotten from evaluating the accuracy of a large number of predictions.
I don't have a strong feeling myself about the timing for the first predator drone attack on the US, but within a decade doesn't seem crazy. I can't see a laws of war argument that Pakistan shouldn't use predators against the US.
This entry was posted at http://nancylebov.dreamwidth.org/503676.html. Comments are welcome here or there. comments so far on that entry.