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Egypt and prediction - Input Junkie
August 19th, 2013
10:00 am


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Egypt and prediction
When things blew up in Egypt after the military removed Morsi, I found it tempting to think "what a bunch of idiots. Didn't they know the Muslim Brotherhood wouldn't be good sports about it?"

On the other hand, I don't think I heard a lot of people saying that the military move would be problematic on the ground as well as being anti-democratic in principle, though it's possible I just had the wrong sources.

Tetlock has done research on expert political judgement-- asking pundits to make predictions and say how sure they are they're right. Pundits are awful at prediction, and people generally don't seem to care.

However, whether politicians are good at prediction is a more important question, and I haven't seen discussion of it.

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Date:August 21st, 2013 05:21 am (UTC)
You should check out Asia Times Online if you're interested in what's going on over there. It's a Hong Kong website that covers mostly economic and political news.
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Date:August 23rd, 2013 06:09 am (UTC)
Alas, I told a number of friends last year WHEN MORSI WAS ELECTED that something like this would happen. Claims of election-rigging aside, I just knew in my gut that the Muslim Brotherhood was going to piss off both the military *and* the average Egpytian who isn't a Wahhabist (and the vast majority of them aren't).

There are enough Wahhabists, however, that they were going to cause trouble if they got thrown out of power... and honestly I'm a little surprised that there hasn't been MORE interfactional bloodshed, whether or not the military was involved in any given scene.
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